It's tricky to get the right formula

AFL fixture consultant Rick Stone (far right). Source: Supplied

YOUR typical state lottery may require you to pick six numbers out of 50 to win the jackpot.

Statistically, this means selecting the correct combination of six numbers out of 50. You would have a one in 15,890,700 chance of winning.

That's how many different ways there are of selecting 6/50.

Compare this with the AFL's fixture lists. We have 18 clubs. Each club can play in one of 34 possible matches per week -- 17 home against the other clubs and 17 away against the other clubs.

In addition, each of those matches can be on any one of the nine different TV slots each round. As well, many of the clubs can host matches in a variety of stadiums, on average about two stadiums per club.

Altogether we are dealing with 18 clubs x 34 match-ups x 9 TV slots x 2 stadiums x 23 rounds, which equals a little over 250,000 possible choices.

From those 250,000 choices, the AFL must select the correct combination of 198 matches that best meets the collective needs of the clubs, the fans, the stadiums, and broadcasters.

I have yet to find a calculatorthat can handle a number as large as this. The answer is always infinity.

Even trying to select 198 matches out of 1000 game options gives me the number 4.1e+214. That is 4.1 with 214 zeros behind it.

I can only imagine that selecting 198 out of 250,000 is infinitely bigger than this number. It's like trying to find the "best" grain of sand on a beach.

Rick Stone is president of Optimal Planning Solutions, the AFL's fixture consultant
 

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